Subscriber email sent December 18 2024.

Here’s key updates to my Future Map predictions, action plans and tools since my last email In October 2024.

Summary:

  • Rewriting the Rules: The Future of Apparel
  • Does Trump Change The Forecast?
  • AI Is Getting Frightening
  • New Summary Documents Added
  • My Ask
  • Closing

The Future of Apparel

This is a deeper dive I put together on the future of apparel, a category that I think will see the most change and disruption.  I recommend everyone read it because some items in here apply to all consumer product categories.

Does Trump Change The Forecast?

In summary…not sure, but all of the futurists I curate my content from lean towards no, considering history and Trumps’ previous MO.  Here’s some positives and negatives with Trump.

Positives

Kennedy infiltrated the Trump campaign and his involvement may signal a focus on improving public health and addressing the influence of industrial food and pharmaceutical sectors, which have contributed to subpar health outcomes in the U.S. despite the nation’s significant healthcare spending. This can’t hurt and hopefully will help.

The tech bros. infiltrated the Trump campaign,  where in previous administrations technology was bolted onto the platform, in the incoming administration technology and innovation are front and center.  This is a good thing because technology is the only thing that will save us from our main challenges, which are (1) the need to reindustrialize to generate a new growth engine, which (2) raises our GDP to help us solve our government debt issues, (3) decarbonization to reduce the frequency and severity of environmental disasters and (4) wealth inequality, which could go a long way to being solved through reindustrialization.

I am very positive and supportive of these infiltrations and think they won’t hurt.  They might all help immensely. I am hopeful.

Negatives

Trump’s platform does not seem to directly address our four main challenges. Instead, his policies appear poised to massively increase federal debt and wealth inequality and his policies around reindustrialization lack the strategic depth to make a difference.

Political insiders suggest an impending epic war between entrenched government interests—backed by the defense, food, and pharmaceutical industries—and the incoming administration, which aims to expose corruption and wasteful spending. Could this be beneficial? Possibly, though it doesn’t directly address the four major challenges we face. It might, however, push us closer to long-term solutions. Unfortunately, it appears this effort could be more about Trump seeking revenge than systemic reform. True accountability would require exposing corruption across all parties, which seems unlikely.

Will DOGE help?  Unlikely.  Previous presidents have tried similar actions with very limited results.

Overall, I am not expecting much, but we should be supportive and hopeful, yet remain realistic.  And we should be prepared for anything and everything and not surprised or shocked for what is ahead, especially in terms of this internal war I highlighted.

AI Is Getting Frightening

I remain amazed by the transformative power of AI. It has significantly boosted my productivity at work. Where I used to operate at a factor of 1, I now feel like I’m working at a 1.3—essentially, there are now 1.3 Eddies tackling the workload. AI enables me to achieve more, faster, and at a lower cost. Its capabilities in data analysis (both quantitative and qualitative), writing, coding, and even as a teaching tool are truly remarkable, despite its occasional quirks and errors. There is not an hour in the day that goes by without me directly using one of the primary large language models.

What’s the frightening part?

In 5 years, AI will have 80-90% of the expertise of the best in their fields – chemists, doctors, marketers, physicists, dog trainers…anyone who does a knowledge-based job is at risk of significant disruption.  Senior and mid-level managers are highly at risk as well.  In my Future of Apparel document, I provide the the infrastructure for a billion dollar apparel company with only 3-people, or according to Sam Altman, a billion dollar company with only 1-person.

How does a knowledge-based worker limit disruption?  That is covered in this document: Skill Sets And Jobs Of The Future For Consumer Product Professionals.

New Summary Documents Added

I added a summary document that is a concise overview of what we should expect to happen over the next few decades from a macro-perspective.

I added a summary document that is a concise overview of what we should expect to happen in the outdoor industry over the next decade.

The above are key changes I wanted to profile in this email.  The complete changelog for all of my Future Map updates is here.

My Ask

If you need help future-proofing your company, please contact me. I’ve developed a comprehensive framework that integrates strategy, tactics, and technology to future-proof my own businesses, and I’m eager to help others do the same. If you know of companies that could benefit from future-proofing, I’d greatly appreciate you directing them to my work.

Closing

With that, I will hit the send button.  Please have a safe and enjoyable final few weeks of 2024.

Thank you for reading!