Feature image:  Electricity generation costs over time.  This visual and additional ones contained in my Visual Dataset.

This post includes LEARNINGS, GROWTH SECRETS and INVESTMENT IDEAS.  These posts are built during the time period and sent out as emails at the end. See previous updates here

The biggest risks to the global financial market. Great list to think about in your own risk management.

I split out fields in the Decision Analysis dataset, having one field for upside summary and one field for downside summary.  See my current investment portfolio selection for those changes.

Learn about the development of the COVID-19 vaccine via mRNA in this really informative podcast episode.  It is not technical and covers a lot about technology for vaccine and drug development and where the industry is going now.  It is amazing how within 2-days of hearing about COVID in China, the genetic sequence was posted online, and 2-days later, the vaccine was digitally developed .  That was in January.  The production and testing is what took the most time.

The is an interesting chart showing the relative public markets value compared to other countries over time.  The U.S. appears very over valued right now.

This could be big and disrupt the brocks/mortar based payday lending industry.

Get to know the CRISP cutting tools.

Came across this in my reading:  Five Features of Market Madness.

Market psychology is in charge:

  1. While monetary easing usually starts a bubble, a reversal in monetary policy is unlikely to deflate the bubble once the speculative momentum builds.​
  2. Valuations do not matter while a bubble is inflating, but they become very important after it bursts.​
  3. Bubbles typically end with some huge corporate collapse, often tainted with fraud.​
  4. Bubble dynamics need not bear any relation to the strength, or weakness, of the economic cycle.​
  5. Speculation increases dramatically when prices break through major highs.​

Number 3 caught my eye as an exogenous event to watch for.

Commodities cheapest since 1970 relative to equites.  They may not be that cheap, but with the sky high equity prices, they appear so.

Here’s my current list of risk events to change emotion/trend that disrupt current narrative in my current investing strategy document:

  1. Tesla Fails due to fraud.
  2. China invades Taiwan.
  3. Major west coast earthquake.
  4. Security hack creating serious economic, financial, political, military ruin with lives lost.

Current latest practices with respect to detecting disease at an early stage are covered in this podcast episode, especially cancer, and a startup leading that effort.  It is interesting that the technology and know how is mostly there, but getting it to work within the current framework – the structure, economics, and clinician/patient awareness – of our health system is the challenge and the path towards creating a blockbuster company.

This is an interesting e-commerce CPG growth model.  Not one I particular like as an entrepreneur, because I am all about innovation and developing something unique for competitive advantage. But as an investor, this is an interesting model right now and could be a great trade for a while because the company may be unknown yet to the wider investment community.   It also could represent the future of e-commerce and CPG acquisitions/exit strategies, because this space has been terrible for not producing them over the last decade.

This demonstrates serious issues with our electoral college vote system.