Here’s key updates to my Future Map predictions, action plans and tools since this letter was last sent June 30 2024.
Summary:
- Skill Sets And Jobs Of The Future For Consumer Product Professionals
- “OH Shit!” moment in climate change
- Scaling AI 10,000x by 2030?
- Amazing parallels to U.S. 1930’s to present day
- Delaying our reckoning by 30 years and alternative predictions
- SB-707 – clock is now ticking for brands
- Incumbent backlash: brands have 4-years to reshore and get to real zero
Skill Sets And Jobs Of The Future For Consumer Product Professionals
I’ve been repeatedly asked about what are the skill sets and jobs of the future for consumer product professionals. Rather than answer that question directly, I have decided to go deeper and attempt to answer it in the context of job security; another wards, what skill sets can people acquire that reduce their chances of getting disintermediated and disrupted by technology, economic conditions or secular shifts. Here is the document.
“OH Shit!” moment in climate change
With respect to climate change and environmental disasters, my prediction over the next 20 years was that we will continue to adapt and make shifts towards decarbonization at the pace we have been doing (which is slowly). Jobs and our economy will take center stage over climate change investments. My predictions on this have dramatically changed as a result of a recently published paper where researchers predict with 90% certainty that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will collapse sometime between 2037 and 2059. We don’t know the exact effects, but safe to say that this would be quite catastrophic for the planet, orders of magnitude more severe than what we are experiencing now. As a result, I have made some dramatic changes with respect to the environmental response that I foresee coming. That is profiled in my main narrative document about the future: Reckoning And Resurgence Summary Supplement To Business Cycles Slideshare
Scaling AI 10,000x by 2030?
I saw an amazing chart showing the jump in computer processing power. We went 6x since 2019, which allowed us to usher in the age of AI (scratching the surface, really). But projections say we will see 10-50x from here by 2030. This will all drive AI that will bring about changes to all our lives in a compressed time frame the likes never seen before in the history of the world. Immensely positive changes will result, but brand manufacturers have to prepare for this with respect to how consumers will use it to create the products they want. Review the slide Diversified Revenue Sources, Side Gigs 2.0 in my New Normal slideshare
Amazing parallels to U.S. 1930’s to present day
As a futurist, I find myself reading more and more about the past to help predict the future, because human nature does not change. As a result, how we responded to our challenges in the past (which are quite similar to present day) helps us see how we will respond in the future. I added some additional discussion around the 1930’s and 1940’s and how our government responded to the challenges of that period, which gives more insight to what we can expect again. That is profiled in my main narrative document about the future: Reckoning And Resurgence Summary Supplement To Business Cycles Slideshare
Delaying our reckoning by 30 years and alternative predictions
Predictions from many experts I curate suggest our Reckoning period is towards the end of this decade and into the next. Could that Reckoning be postponed 30-years into the future? Could it be much worse and we see a depression instead? Either scenario is possibly, but so far neither seems likely given our current trajectory, especially the U.S. seeing another depression. I added these Alternate Cases to my main narrative document: Reckoning And Resurgence Summary Supplement To Business Cycles Slideshare
SB-707 – clock is now ticking for the consumer product industry in California
This is the first law of its kinds for textile products passed in the U.S. (many existing similar laws are already in place across many states for other product categories). I published a document about the law, its effects on textile brands, timing and deadlines for performance, and action plans for producers to not just reduce costs associated with the law, but also how to turn this legislation into a profit center for the brand (and the industry as a whole).
Incumbent backlash: 4 years to adapt or die
We have to ask ourselves what will the public response be in the future if/when we see deep economic and environmental troubles. When people are losing their jobs and can’t pay their bills, or losing their homes, communities and livelihoods to environmental catastrophes like Helene (Helene’s rains, a 1,000-year event using statistical estimates based on the historic record, is now projected to occur about once every 70 years due to global warming), they will turn their anger on many, including companies who are selling in the U.S., but sending jobs abroad, and on companies who are not dramatically reducing their carbon emissions to help stop climate change. Public sentiment could shift suddenly where consumers and political leaders will care most about jobs and what companies are doing to get to “real zero” in carbon emissions (not net zero, which accounts for carbon credits, green bonds and carbon removal – all of which are proving to be scams). We could see significant legislation passed that forces companies to produce in the U.S. if they want to sell in the U.S., and stringent laws around tracking and reporting all-scope emissions and requirements that force those emissions to come down quickly and significantly. As a result, many brand manufacturers that built and prospered under a globalized framework (1945-2015) will be highly disadvantaged, unless they can make massive gains in reshoring operations and getting to real zero. There are already many small brands that produce in the U.S. and are making great strides in getting to real zero; could many of our largest and most storied brands disappear, while these small brands take their place? Absolutely. We are heading into a significant period that will disrupt the status quo in massive ways. I think brands in general have at most 4-years to figure out how to reshore and take enormous strides towards real zero.
The above are key changes I wanted to profile in this email. The complete changelog for all of my Future Map updates is here.
Thank you for reading!